Based on lists drawn up by unfunded state agencies, roughly 9,200 state workers are classified as providing "non-critical, non-core" services, meaning they are now out of work. Most agencies are reduced to skeleton staffs, even in such areas as public health, workplace safety, and licensing and inspections.

Last week, Ramsey County District Judge Gregg Johnson ordered the state to continue essential functions, even without legislative appropriations in place. To settle disputes, Johnson appointed a "special master," Edward Stringer, to decide which state services qualify.

In the Department of Human Services, 4,080 of the more than 6,900 workers are classified as performing critical services. But in Education, only 29 of 430 workers are being kept on. In Health, only 290 of 1,1387 are being kept on. In Transportation, the state is laying off 3,964 workers, and classifies only 864 jobs as critical. But MnDOT does consider the 200 road construction projects it oversees as "critical," meaning as many as 10,000 private-sector workers will remain employed.

Counties will feel ripples
Further, state employees are not the only ones facing layoffs. "Counties are essentially a creation of the state, delivering state services," said John Thorsen, of AFSCME Council 5's legislative staff. Counties will have to decide whether to continue providing unfunded services ? without any guarantee that they'll be reimbursed by the state ? or to cut off those services and lay off workers until the state solves its budget impasse.

"The ripples are already starting in the cities and counties of this state," said Jim Monroe, executive director of the Minnesota Association of Professional Employees, which represents 11,100 state workers. "If this doesn't get done,? services are going to stop. This is serious. It's not just a few agencies."

"I don't think citizens of this state ? realize how far this goes," said Eliot Seide, executive director of AFSCME Council 5, which represents 19,000 state employees. "As this rolls through, more and more Minnesotans are going to be affected. This is not a responsible way to run government."

Hennepin County, he said, is already preparing for layoffs beginning July 15.

Nonprofits also caught in middle
Similarly, nonprofit agencies have thousands of contracts with the state and must make similar decisions as counties ? again, without any guarantee that they'll be reimbursed by the state for any services they continue to provide, said John Pratt, executive director of the Minnesota Council of Nonprofits. Nonprofits have to juggle fiduciary responsibilities with their responsibilities as employers and service providers, he said. Services that are partially funded by the federal government only complicate the decision.

The budget fiasco, Pratt said, "is a classic case of the decreased reliability of our government partners."

The Greater Twin Cities United Way and the Nonprofit Assistance Fund have pledged to advance payments or provide short-term bridge loans to nonprofits, "but it's important not to make the assumption that foundations or individuals can make up the difference," said Marcia Avner, public policy director for the Council of Nonprofits.

"Minnesota as we know it will cease to exist" if the budget impasse continues until July 15, says Cal Ludemann, state commissioner of employee relations. Union Advocate photo

Trying to buy time before chaos takes over
The state and employee unions have signed two-week "limited interruption of Employment" agreements, during which workers keep their jobs on paper and can use vacation or other paid time off to counter the lack of a paycheck. However, the workers won't get the money up front; they'll actually have to wait until after the shutdown is over to see it on the their paycheck.

"We have people who are not going to be paid," Monroe said. "This is not a vacation for them. They're being put out on the street through no fault of their own."

Unions are working with some credit unions to provide bridge loans to state workers facing layoff because of the budget impasse, Monroe said.

If the shutdown continues past July 15, formal layoffs begin. At that point, veteran employees who are laid off can begin exercising bumping rights, even into other agencies.

"Basically, you get a breakdown in government service," Seide said. "People will be trying to find work in different agencies. People who have been delivering the service may have to be bumped by somebody else. It's going to cause a great deal of disruption."

"If we get into bumping, this goes into funded agencies and unfunded agencies alike," Monroe said. "Everything opens up. The turmoil ? you can't even describe what it's going to look like. This is going to be crazy. It's complete insanity."

If the state gets to July 15 without a budget settlement, "Minnesota as we know it will cease to exist," said Cal Ludemann, commissioner of employee relations. "Once you open the box, putting things back in the box is never as easy as some people think it's going to be."

Layoffs will force the state to pay out an estimated $377 million in severance costs, he said. Of course, if agencies don't have money appropriated, "I'm not sure how severance costs get paid out," he said.

Michael Kuchta edits the Union Advocate, the official publication of the St. Paul Trades and Labor Assembly. E-mail him at advocate@mtn.org