Trying to make sense of jobs figures?

Is the glass half empty or half full?

That’s pretty much what it’s like trying to figure out how well, or how poorly, the state and nation are doing at creating new jobs.

In Minnesota, updated figures from the Department of Employment and Economic Development show Minnesota gained 38,100 jobs in 2004. That’s 14,700 more jobs than previously estimated. That’s good news.

But wait. Some of that improvement can be explained by revisions that show the state actually started 2004 with 9,800 fewer jobs than previously thought. So, after the revisions cancel each other out, it means we ended the year only 4,900 jobs ahead of where we thought we were. Better, but not great.

Easy come, easy go
However, DEED says we then lost 2,100 jobs in January, and gained only 1,500 of them back in February. So much for the good news; it means we’re actually in the hole so far in 2005.

That’s not good news for state economists, whose forecasts for the state budget depend on the state adding 44,000 jobs this year. That means job growth has to average almost 4,500 a month for the rest of the year. But since last April, the state has added only 13,500 jobs total, an average of less than 1,400 a month.

“There’s no doubt job growth is well short of where we would like to see it and where we have seen it in the past,” said Steve Hine, labor market information director at DEED.

The numbers also confirm that the state is recovering jobs even more slowly than the U.S. as a whole, which isn?t saying a lot. The end results: On the positive side, Minnesota has 42,100 more jobs than when the state’s job market bottomed out in November 2003. On the negative side, we’re still 11,700 jobs short of regaining all he jobs we lost since March 2001, when the last recession began.

Available jobs decrease
The numbers don’t show whether the jobs that are being created are full-time or part-time, or what they pay, Hine says. But other new figures from DEED do give some clues, and they aren’t encouraging.

The department’s latest Job Vacancy Survey shows that for every 100 people looking for work in Minnesota, there are only 43 jobs available. There were 15,209 fewer jobs available in December than there were in June, according to the survey, which the department conducts twice a year.

That’s a drop of 16 percent in six months.

The total number of available jobs was estimated at 50,127, while the number of state residents officially counted as unemployed stood at 116,500.

High-skill positions scarce
The quality of available jobs isn?t exactly the greatest, either, notes Kevin Ristau, education director of the JOBS NOW Coalition. The three job categories with the largest number of openings ? office and administrative support, sales, and food preparation and service ? have a median wage of only $7.95 an hour. That’s below the $8.46 an hour that the minimum wage would be if it had kept up with inflation since the 1960s.

The median wage for all open jobs was $10,85 an hour, the state says, meaning half the jobs paid more than that, while half paid less. That median wage has been steadily increasing; it was $10.28 a year earlier, $9.50 two years earlier, and $9.31 a year before that.

However, of the available jobs, 13 percent were temporary or seasonal, and 38 percent were part-time. Part-time jobs, the state says, paid a median wage of only $8.83 an hour.

Further, Ristau says, “There’s still no evidence of a meaningful shift to high-skill occupations” in the jobs that are available. Only 17 percent of the jobs required a four-year college degree or higher; more than twice as many ? 38 percent ? simply required a high-school education or less.

Adapted from The Union Advocate, the official newspaper of the St. Paul Trades and Labor Assembly. E-mail The Advocate at: advocate@mtn.org

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